Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
